UFC fight model: winner, method and round projections for every card, with the full graded record published in the open.
What the model projects
Every bout gets four outputs rather than a single pick:
Winner probability — calibrated against the model's own history, so a fighter listed at 60% has won close to 60% of the time at that number.
Method — how the fight ends, split between knockout/TKO, submission and decision.
Round distribution — where a finish is most likely to land, and the chance the fight goes the distance.
Style and strength — each fighter typed from real statistics (striker, grappler, wrestler or balanced) rather than reputation, alongside a strength tier and an aging-curve read.
How the record is kept
The ledger records every bout on every card, not the subset that cleared a
betting threshold, and it is keyed on the fighter the model picked. Method is
captured for reference but never affects grading — the public record is
fighter-outcome only. Cards are locked before the first fight and are not
edited afterwards.