Today's Model Picks

Today's model picks across MLB, NFL, CFB, NBA, NHL and UFC — published before the event and graded publicly afterwards.

Today's slate

No plays are posted yet for 2026-09-01. Picks publish once lineups, starters or fight cards are confirmed, so a slate appears on the morning of the event rather than days ahead.

How to read a pick

Each play carries four numbers, and they answer different questions:

Pick and price — the side and the American odds available when the play was published. The price is part of the pick; the same side at a worse number is a different bet.
Model probability — how often the model expects that side to win, from simulation rather than from the market.
Edge — model probability minus the price's implied probability, in percentage points. It is the disagreement with the market, not a promise.
Confidence grade — S, A+, A or B+, reflecting how much the model trusts its own inputs on that game: confirmed lineups and starters, sample size behind each rating, and how far the edge sits from the noise.

When picks publish, and how they are graded

Plays are written before the event and frozen. Nothing is edited after the fact, and a play that was posted cannot be withdrawn if it looks wrong later — that is the point of a public ledger. Grading is done against official results, and pushes and voids are recorded as such rather than dropped.

Markets covered depend on the sport. Baseball runs moneyline, run line and total; college football runs spread and total; UFC runs the fight winner with method and round projections alongside it.

Every sport

See how they graded → · How the models work →